Integra Financial Inc

1Q 2024 Newsletter

Willis Ashby • Jan 11, 2024

I hope you had a safe and enjoyable holiday season. For the first time since COVID we were able to have our entire family together, including the Australians, it was very nice. I hope yours was as enjoyable. The top news stories of the year were the rapid rise of interest rates effectively slowing inflation without crashing the economy:


 1) The collapse of the crypto exchange FTX the conviction and jailing of its founder.: 2) push back on the Woke movement whose broad world view is that there are only the oppressed and the oppressor with the latter being vilified with the presidents of Harvard and Penn resigning; 3) COVID officially ending; 4) a Chinese spy balloon being shot down after it flew over the US 5) Taylor Swift concerts setting off Richter scales; and finally,  6) unfortunately, yet another war and add to this, Open AI going from unknown to an estimated 1.6 billion visitors and it was quite a year! Of these I think the expansion of AI will be an enormous event. I remember a speech Bill Gates gave before the internet was to be found anywhere, except a few universities and the government, saying it was going to change the world. I had no idea how big a change it would be; I suspect the AI expansion will have the same effect.

 

The broad Morningstar Index finished the year up an amazing 26.43% with 12.08% of that in the last 3 months. With a few exceptions, most of the market pundits predicted another year like 2022 (-19.43) and a recession. In hindsight, of course they were wrong!! This is yet another lesson on the importance of staying invested when all you see and hear about is “gloom and doom”. We do our best to keep you in good long-term investment strategies that are appropriate for you. The rapid rise of interest rates bringing down inflation was a good and positive thing, however, unfortunately it does not reverse inflation, so expect higher prices going forward. Most of the above pundits mentioned above are now saying we should have a soft landing and they (Federal Reserve) will likely lower rates this year. I am hopeful they are right, but I am in the camp of higher interest rates for a longer, rather than shorter time. Inflation is a stubborn thing: interestingly, if you remove housing, inflation is running below the Feds target of 2%. However, many things are in place to have the soft-landing we hope for, among them being the multiplicity of jobs!! The jobs report is excellent, but the biggest gains came from government hiring, thereby helping the economy now but not in the long term as our tax dollars fund such hiring. The stimulus and COVID checks will wear off in the next few months; then we should see how strong the economy actually is and if corporate profits can continue to grow. What does all this mean? Do your best to find good well-run companies and hold on; it has worked very well throughout my career which now spans a very long time.

 

Enclosed is our privacy statement. I must complain a little here. We do not sell or give your information to anyone unless we need to process your account, a court demands it, or you direct us to, for example, your CPA needs the information for tax preparation. The copy you are receiving is two pages of “blather” strongly recommended by our compliance law firm to stay in compliance with the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission). Our old document was only one page!

 

Finally, be advised that our ADV will be provided upon request, or you can look at it on the SEC website. This is the document where we explain how Integra is run along with other disclaimers. Nick, Keith, Alison, Kathy and I thank you for allowing us to be of service. If your situation changes or you have any questions about your account(s), please contact us. 

 

Willis Ashby, President and CFP® 

 

 

P.S. If you would like to receive future reports via email, please contact the office at 303-220-5525
 

Sources - WSJ, Morningstar, First Trust, Zacks, Forbes, The Economist


By Willis Ashby 08 Apr, 2024
As usual I hope this finds you well. As we welcome spring and having just finished the first quarter, things look good. The broad Morningstar index was up 10.24% through 03-31-24. The large cap companies led the way up 11.08% and the small caps up 5.69%. The S&P 500 experienced 22 “all-time highs” with less than 2% drops in-between. Amazing!
By Willis Ashby 05 Oct, 2023
After the bruising market in 2022 where the broad index was down 19.43%, we are in a better place. Year to date the Morningstar broad index is up 12.81% but down 3.19% for the quarter. That said, we have a lot to keep our eyes on. On the positive side, consumer spending is remaining robust, and the Biden administration passed their TRILLION-dollar spending bill, corporate profits are slowing but still positive, unemployment is a low 3.6% and the Fed again passed on raising interest rates.
By Keith Fevurly 19 Sep, 2023
Distribution Options...
By Keith Fevurly 24 Jul, 2023
Some points to consider: 1) Likely the biggest distribution question that a 401(k) participant asks is: should I rollover the proceeds to an IRA or retain it within the 401(k), assuming the plan sponsor allows that? There is no certain answer to this question, although in the majority of situations, it is preferable to roll the proceeds because of participant control of the account. See Willis, Nick, or Keith to begin the paperwork for a Rollover IRA.
By Willis Ashby 10 Jul, 2023
I hope you had a wonderful 4th of July celebration. We have a reading of the Declaration at our gatherings, it is always amazing to me to hear how many people under 30 saying they didn’t understand what was declared and to whom it was sent. After the declaration we (our founders) wrote our Constitution taking the best from the Magna Carta of 1215 and the English Parliament’s Bill of Rights of 1689. We have a lot of issues in our country but when you look at our beginning, it is amazing!
By Willis Ashby 13 Apr, 2023
You cannot say we do not live in interesting times; A past president indicted on criminal charges; bank failures; FTX collapse; and high inflation to mention a few. The Morningstar broad index was up 7.40% for the quarter and YTD. Most of this was the rebounding of the large tech companies which had been crushed at the end of last year.
By Willis Ashby 30 Dec, 2022
First Happy New Year. I hope you and your families had a pleasant, safe, and healthy start to the year. There are so many things causing headline news and affecting the market: COVID, “Transitory Inflation”, Ukraine, another $1.7 trillion spending bill, FTX’s downfall, snowstorms, Trumps Tax Returns, Fentanyl and the border. It is no wonder we are having a rough market! The S&P was down 19.4% in 2022, the worst since 2008. I think the three things that are most affecting the market are:1) the COVID shutdowns,2) massive government spending, and 3) inflation. The shutdown of an enormous part of our economy during the pandemic, in hindsight, was a mistake.
By Willis Ashby 05 Oct, 2022
This is not a pretty quarter or year for the markets. The broad Morningstar index is -4.58% for the quarter and- 24.88% for the year. As I noted a few quarters ago the large-cap growth stocks make up the largest part of the index, so when they go up or down the entire market feels it. The Large Cap Growth section of the market is -40.99%, (Time to buy?). We also know on average every 5 years the stock market loses money. It is the price we have to pay for “investing” and receiving better investment results in the long term. It is interesting to note that with few exceptions there have been no safe harbors. Cash -8%, Gold -8%, Bitcoin -70%, Bonds -15% (depends on the class and type Muni vs Corp vs Govt), so if you wanted to go into the currency market and made a “bet” on the US Dollar rising, you would be very happy; too risky for me. As a reminder, when interest rates go up bonds go down, but the usual result of “stocks go down bonds must rise” is not occurring. This is the time to reflect on how much our accounts have gone up in the last few years and to realize it will do so again. It is just a matter of time! Apple, Google, and Procter & Gamble are not going anywhere, just because the market thinks they are a LOT less than last year really means they were overpriced then and now they are likely underpriced. The S&P earnings are at 8% so why are the markets down? If you strip out energy the number drops to 1% and the market thinks inflation is going to take it away: -no earnings and you get a down market! As much as I do not want to admit it, I agree. We don’t know if wages drive prices or vice versa, but we do know inflation is caused by too much money circulating in the economy. The Federal Balance Sheet in 2007 was $850 Billion, today it is close to $9 trillion. We cannot continue printing and sending out trillions of dollars. The Federal Reserve has said it will continue to raise interest rates until inflation is under control. The economy will likely take a hit but sit tight since it will recover. As a reminder, the market went up 9% in July alone. If you are worried about the markets give us a call, we have been through this before.
By Willis Ashby 19 Jul, 2022
You cannot say we do not live in interesting times; A past president indicted on criminal charges; bank failures; FTX collapse; and high inflation to mention a few. The Morningstar broad index was up 7.40% for the quarter and YTD. Most of this was the rebounding of the large tech companies which had been crushed at the end of last year.
By Willis Ashby 06 Apr, 2022
I hope this finds you and your family well. COVID has ripped through all three of our children while they were home with us. Fortunately, it was the Omicron variant, and all had very mild symptoms. As careless as we were (per our children), my wife and I both dodged it regardless of our "risky" behavior. A part of me wishes I would have caught the mild version and I could be done with it. That said, I am done with it for now. The market has turned with the broad Morningstar index down – 5.33% Year to Date. Only the previously lagging Value Sector is up 2.35%. In reviewing the index, I found it interesting that the top 10 companies constitute 24.38% of the entire 1,643 stock index. As those companies go, so goes the index. At the end of last year, the market was priced to perfection, most economists were predicting increasing profits, increasing employment, continued low-interest rates, supply chain issues improving, COVID being over, and about any other metric was looking positive. Then inflation became stubborn, and Ukraine happened. The current driver of inflation is too much money sloshing around and the increasing price of oil. M-2 (cash, checking, savings, and "near-cash" which is easily convertible to cash), has increased by 40% since COVID started. The Fed has used quantitative easing as a very sophisticated way of printing money. However, they printed too much money for too long a period. Thus, they have announced that they may increase rates by 50 basis points (1/2 of 1%) at their next meeting. This is an acknowledgment they are behind the curve on inflation, and they are doing the correct thing to fix it.
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