I hope this letter finds you well. As we recently celebrated the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, it is a fitting time to reflect on the remarkable achievements this nation has accomplished over the past two and a half centuries — from unprecedented wealth creation and rising living standards to advancements in healthcare and the expansion of our personal freedoms.
The financial markets have continued to deliver strong performance, though recent gains may give some investors pause. Year to date, the broad Morningstar Index is up 10.52%, while returning 1.53% for the most recent quarter. Supporting these valuations are solid fundamentals: cash flow has increased by 11.09% and earnings up by 12.21%, aligning closely with market returns. Significant investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, development, and semiconductor technology — projected to approach one trillion dollars over the next two years — has been a major driver.
That said, certain indicators warrant caution. The Shiller CAPE Ratio — a valuation measure that compares current stock prices to average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past ten years — has reached an all-time high. Inflation remains persistent, geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to influence oil prices, and the most recent employment report showed a slowdown in hiring. While some economists foresee a significant market correction, others view this as the dawn of a new era akin to the Industrial Revolution. As always, market timing remains uncertain, and we continue to focus on long-term fundamentals rather than short-term predictions.
In other news, SpaceX made history with the largest initial public offering (IPO) ever, trading under the ticker symbol SPCX. The company, which owns SpaceX, Grok AI, and Starlink, is involved in reusable rocket technology, satellite-based internet services (which we are successfully using in our office), and advanced artificial intelligence.
My first experience with an IPO was in 1975 when Coors Brewing Company went public. After the elder Coors passed away, estate taxes prompted the family to take the company public. As a beer drinker, I couldn’t resist buying shares in what I viewed as an outstanding company. Unfortunately, I overlooked important details such as the shares being non-voting. After several years of minimal gains, I sought guidance from a mentor and learned valuable lessons about patience, reading the fine print, revenue growth, and the critical importance of profits.
While SpaceX’s IPO is impressive and has made Elon Musk the first trillionaire, we plan to monitor its performance over the coming quarters before considering it for client portfolios. It opened at $135 per share, reached a high of $225, and is currently trading around $148. Some analysts value the company significantly lower, making it interesting to watch.
For Fun: IPO History Here’s a look at how some notable past IPOs have performed after going public:
| Company | 1 Week | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 12 Months | Year 1 Max Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -17% | -18% | -45% | -42% | -31% | -54% | |
| 0% | 0% | 11% | -32% | -10% | -58% | |
| Alibaba | -4% | -6% | 18% | -9% | -30% | -49% |
| Shopify | 7% | 38% | 14% | 9% | 2% | -52% |
| Block | -6% | -6% | -24% | -28% | -7% | -44% |
| Twilio | 27% | 42% | 125% | 20% | 3% | -66% |
| Snap | -7% | -8% | -13% | -39% | -26% | -56% |
| Okta | 4% | 1% | 0% | 18% | 64% | -20% |
| MongoDB | -3% | -7% | -9% | 20% | 103% | -28% |
| Dropbox | 10% | 2% | 18% | -7% | -24% | -54% |
| Spotify | 4% | 14% | 13% | 21% | -3% | -46% |
| Lyft | -5% | -23% | -16% | -46% | -65% | -79% |
| Zoom | 54% | 45% | 54% | 9% | 142% | -40% |
| 18% | 9% | 6% | 5% | 28% | -70% | |
| Uber | 1% | 3% | -4% | -34% | -21% | -68% |
| CrowdStrike | 33% | 22% | 19% | -18% | 64% | -67% |
| Cloudflare | 10% | -13% | 0% | 6% | 90% | -32% |
| Datadog | -14% | -16% | 1% | -15% | 128% | -42% |
| Snowflake | 14% | 5% | 30% | -8% | 27% | 6% |
On a few housekeeping matters:
- We now have the ability to deduct advisory fees directly from IRA accounts. This change can provide tax advantages for many clients. I will be implementing this for my own accounts, and unless you instruct us otherwise, we will do the same for yours.
- Due to delivery issues, I have transitioned to a new email address: willis@integrafa.com. Please use this address for future correspondence. My previous address will still function, but messages may experience delays.
Please do not hesitate to contact us if your financial situation has changed or if you have any questions about your portfolio. We remain committed to helping you navigate these markets with discipline and a long-term perspective.
Wishing you continued success and prosperity,
Willis Ashby, President CFP®
References: WSJ | Reuters | GROK | First Trust
