Integra Financial Inc

3Q 2022 Newsletter

Willis Ashby • Jul 19, 2022

I do not like green eggs and ham. I do not like this market; maybe I should change my name to Sam. The broad Morningstar Index is down 21.28% YTD and down 16.85% this past quarter. It has been 40 years since we have had stocks and bonds drop at the same time. Inflation is the highest it has been since 1981. Fed Chairman Powell has said he is more concerned with inflation than a recession and made clear he will continue to raise rates until inflation is heading back to the stated goal of 2%. Now that I said everything is terrible, let me remind you of other times the market dropped like this in 1932, 1939, 1940, 1962, and 1970, when the market rose an average of 24% the following quarter. Now is a great time to get whipsawed. At some point, investors will believe the market has dropped beyond where it should be, and the turnaround begins. It is especially important not to miss the turnaround.

 

See the graph below.

Line Graph — Greenwood Village, CO — Integra Financial Inc

With that said, please keep in mind that when we project your long-term returns, it includes these market drops. It is uncomfortable but expected. Statistically, this occurs every 5 years and should be of no surprise. However, sit tight as this too shall pass!

Some of you have asked how raising rates stop inflation. I will use home buying as my example. Most people, when buying a home, determine how much they can afford per month. The interest rate you obtain on your mortgage matters more than you may expect. For example, let us assume you can afford a payment of $3,000.00 per month with an old rate of interest (such as 3% with EXCELLENT credit) using a 30-year mortgage.

In the above scenario, you could previously buy a home with a purchase price of approximately $710,000,00.00. Now, if we move the rate of interest up to 6%, you could only afford a home that costs approximately $500,000.00. The approximate $200,000.00 difference is huge for just a 3-percentage point rise in annual interest rates. As a result, you may likely reconsider your decision to buy and choose to stay out of the market, which will effectually slow the rate of inflation. 


As always, if you have any questions or concerns, please write or call. Keith, Nick & I worry about the market for you. If history repeats itself, and I think it will, the market will recover, and our investing methods will prove sound again!


Yours Truly,
Willis Ashby, President

2Q 2024 Newsletter

By Willis Ashby • 08 Apr, 2024
As usual I hope this finds you well. As we welcome spring and having just finished the first quarter, things look good. The broad Morningstar index was up 10.24% through 03-31-24. The large cap companies led the way up 11.08% and the small caps up 5.69%. The S&P 500 experienced 22 “all-time highs” with less than 2% drops in-between. Amazing!

1Q 2024 Newsletter

By Willis Ashby • 11 Jan, 2024
I hope you had a safe and enjoyable holiday season. For the first time since COVID we were able to have our entire family together, including the Australians, it was very nice. I hope yours was as enjoyable. The top news stories of the year were the rapid rise of interest rates effectively slowing inflation without crashing the economy:

4Q Newsletter

By Willis Ashby • 05 Oct, 2023
After the bruising market in 2022 where the broad index was down 19.43%, we are in a better place. Year to date the Morningstar broad index is up 12.81% but down 3.19% for the quarter. That said, we have a lot to keep our eyes on. On the positive side, consumer spending is remaining robust, and the Biden administration passed their TRILLION-dollar spending bill, corporate profits are slowing but still positive, unemployment is a low 3.6% and the Fed again passed on raising interest rates.

Distribution Options for Inheriting Retirement or IRA Proceeds (Beginning in 2020)

By Keith Fevurly • 19 Sep, 2023
Distribution Options...

To Roll or Not to Roll (Rollover IRAs)

By Keith Fevurly • 24 Jul, 2023
Some points to consider: 1) Likely the biggest distribution question that a 401(k) participant asks is: should I rollover the proceeds to an IRA or retain it within the 401(k), assuming the plan sponsor allows that? There is no certain answer to this question, although in the majority of situations, it is preferable to roll the proceeds because of participant control of the account. See Willis, Nick, or Keith to begin the paperwork for a Rollover IRA.

Q3 2023 Newsletter

By Willis Ashby • 10 Jul, 2023
I hope you had a wonderful 4th of July celebration. We have a reading of the Declaration at our gatherings, it is always amazing to me to hear how many people under 30 saying they didn’t understand what was declared and to whom it was sent. After the declaration we (our founders) wrote our Constitution taking the best from the Magna Carta of 1215 and the English Parliament’s Bill of Rights of 1689. We have a lot of issues in our country but when you look at our beginning, it is amazing!

Q2 2023 Newsletter

By Willis Ashby • 13 Apr, 2023
You cannot say we do not live in interesting times; A past president indicted on criminal charges; bank failures; FTX collapse; and high inflation to mention a few. The Morningstar broad index was up 7.40% for the quarter and YTD. Most of this was the rebounding of the large tech companies which had been crushed at the end of last year.

Q1 2023 Newsletter

By Willis Ashby • 30 Dec, 2022
First Happy New Year. I hope you and your families had a pleasant, safe, and healthy start to the year. There are so many things causing headline news and affecting the market: COVID, “Transitory Inflation”, Ukraine, another $1.7 trillion spending bill, FTX’s downfall, snowstorms, Trumps Tax Returns, Fentanyl and the border. It is no wonder we are having a rough market! The S&P was down 19.4% in 2022, the worst since 2008. I think the three things that are most affecting the market are:1) the COVID shutdowns,2) massive government spending, and 3) inflation. The shutdown of an enormous part of our economy during the pandemic, in hindsight, was a mistake.

Q4 2022 Newsletter

By Willis Ashby • 05 Oct, 2022
This is not a pretty quarter or year for the markets. The broad Morningstar index is -4.58% for the quarter and- 24.88% for the year. As I noted a few quarters ago the large-cap growth stocks make up the largest part of the index, so when they go up or down the entire market feels it. The Large Cap Growth section of the market is -40.99%, (Time to buy?). We also know on average every 5 years the stock market loses money. It is the price we have to pay for “investing” and receiving better investment results in the long term. It is interesting to note that with few exceptions there have been no safe harbors. Cash -8%, Gold -8%, Bitcoin -70%, Bonds -15% (depends on the class and type Muni vs Corp vs Govt), so if you wanted to go into the currency market and made a “bet” on the US Dollar rising, you would be very happy; too risky for me. As a reminder, when interest rates go up bonds go down, but the usual result of “stocks go down bonds must rise” is not occurring. This is the time to reflect on how much our accounts have gone up in the last few years and to realize it will do so again. It is just a matter of time! Apple, Google, and Procter & Gamble are not going anywhere, just because the market thinks they are a LOT less than last year really means they were overpriced then and now they are likely underpriced. The S&P earnings are at 8% so why are the markets down? If you strip out energy the number drops to 1% and the market thinks inflation is going to take it away: -no earnings and you get a down market! As much as I do not want to admit it, I agree. We don’t know if wages drive prices or vice versa, but we do know inflation is caused by too much money circulating in the economy. The Federal Balance Sheet in 2007 was $850 Billion, today it is close to $9 trillion. We cannot continue printing and sending out trillions of dollars. The Federal Reserve has said it will continue to raise interest rates until inflation is under control. The economy will likely take a hit but sit tight since it will recover. As a reminder, the market went up 9% in July alone. If you are worried about the markets give us a call, we have been through this before.

Q2 2022 Newsletter

By Willis Ashby • 06 Apr, 2022
I hope this finds you and your family well. COVID has ripped through all three of our children while they were home with us. Fortunately, it was the Omicron variant, and all had very mild symptoms. As careless as we were (per our children), my wife and I both dodged it regardless of our "risky" behavior. A part of me wishes I would have caught the mild version and I could be done with it. That said, I am done with it for now. The market has turned with the broad Morningstar index down – 5.33% Year to Date. Only the previously lagging Value Sector is up 2.35%. In reviewing the index, I found it interesting that the top 10 companies constitute 24.38% of the entire 1,643 stock index. As those companies go, so goes the index. At the end of last year, the market was priced to perfection, most economists were predicting increasing profits, increasing employment, continued low-interest rates, supply chain issues improving, COVID being over, and about any other metric was looking positive. Then inflation became stubborn, and Ukraine happened. The current driver of inflation is too much money sloshing around and the increasing price of oil. M-2 (cash, checking, savings, and "near-cash" which is easily convertible to cash), has increased by 40% since COVID started. The Fed has used quantitative easing as a very sophisticated way of printing money. However, they printed too much money for too long a period. Thus, they have announced that they may increase rates by 50 basis points (1/2 of 1%) at their next meeting. This is an acknowledgment they are behind the curve on inflation, and they are doing the correct thing to fix it.
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