As usual, I hope you had a wonderful summer and that this letter finds you well and content.
Year-to-date, the Morningstar Total Market Index is up 12.60%, including a 1.70% gain in the most recent quarter. If ever there were a time to try to tune out the headlines, this is it. While I try my best to filter out the noise, there is certainly a lot to digest right now—from the war in Ukraine and tensions involving Iran, to persistent inflation concerns, AI anxieties, rising national debt, spiking bond yields, and recent unrest in France surrounding its sovereign debt. Depending on your news source, there are likely many other headlines on your radar as well.
Despite these headwinds, the equity market continues to climb, and I believe that momentum could persist. Revenue, profit margins, household debt levels, and employment figures remain positive and improving.
Where I do see potential risk is in the global bond market and rising government debt, which could create wider economic contagion if left unchecked.
To break down what I see as a primary driver of this issue: politicians often respond to public demand for more affordable essential services—such as healthcare or education—by introducing government subsidies (for example, Social Security, ACA/Obamacare, or subsidized student loans). While well-intentioned, subsidizing these areas without strict price controls often leads to rising costs, which fuels inflation. As prices rise, the push for larger subsidies grows, creating a self-perpetuating loop: higher inflation, increased subsidies, and further inflationary pressure—until borrowing costs catch up.
This brings us to the core issue with bonds. When investors begin to question whether a government or borrower can manage its debt burden, they demand higher yields to compensate for the risk. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs across the economy—including the cost of funding those very subsidies. Since the U.S. government funds its operations largely through Treasury sales (such as 10-year T-notes), a poorly received Treasury auction signal that capital is tightening.
Historically, when public borrowing hits a wall, mandatory austerity and benefit cuts follow. We have seen this play out in nations like Greece, Italy, and across South America, often triggering public unrest like the protests recently seen in France. While U.S. national debt is reaching a point that warrants caution, it may take years to manifest as a serious issue—or we may navigate past it entirely. Given the lack of political appetite to curb spending, our clearest path forward is economic growth, and I remain optimistic that our economy can expand its way out of this burden. Which is good for equity markets.
Please keep in mind that this is a broad overview of a complex debt market. Most importantly, we remain disciplined, long-term investors; and periodic market disruptions are a normal part of the journey.
Thank you, as always, for the trust you place in us. Please feel free to reach out with any questions—Keith, Ryan, Alison, and I are always here to help.
Yours truly,
Willis Ashby, President CFP®
PS Grok and I went round and around on edits to this letter, I as much as I don’t want to admit the edits made this clearer and more concise. It removed words like Presto, Austerity, and privileged class.
References: WSJ | Morningstar | GROK | First Trust | All In Podcast | Free Press | Suicidal Empathy
